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Forex News Timeline

Friday, February 22, 2019

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysis team suggest that for the EUR/USD pair, immediate risk is on the upside but it’s too soon to expect a sustained r

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysis team suggest that for the EUR/USD pair, immediate risk is on the upside but it’s too soon to expect a sustained rise in the single currency.Key Quotes“There is not much to add to the update from yesterday (21 Feb, spot at 1.1345).” “Immediate risk for EUR is on the upside but lackluster momentum suggests that it is too soon to expect a sustained rise. In other words, while we continue to see scope for EUR to move higher, we expect any advance to struggle to break above 1.1440.” “On a short-term basis, 1.1410 is already quite a strong level. On the downside, EUR has to move below 1.1270 in order to indicate that the current mild upward pressure has eased.”

TD Securities research team suggest that for the markets, trade discussions between US and China has continued to feature prominently. Key Quotes “I

TD Securities research team suggest that for the markets, trade discussions between US and China has continued to feature prominently.Key Quotes“It seems the US/China have inched closer to a cease fire, which has boosted some of the high-beta currencies (CNH betas).” “AUD stabilized after this week's net losses on the headlines that China bans coal imports from Australia (although coal to China pales in comparison with iron ore).”

   • Australian government downplayed reports of a ban on the country’s coal by a Chinese port.    •  Upbeat comments by RBA’s Lowe/US-China trade opt

   • Australian government downplayed reports of a ban on the country’s coal by a Chinese port.
   •  Upbeat comments by RBA’s Lowe/US-China trade optimism provided an additional boost.
   •  Subdued USD demand remains supportive of the intraday up-move ahead of Fedspeak.
The AUD/USD pair held on to its positive tone through the early European session, albeit seemed struggling to build on the momentum beyond 200-hour SMA. The pair caught some bids on the last trading day of the week and recovered a part of the previous session slump to over one-week lows, triggered by reports that China’s Dalian port authorities had banned Australian coal imports. The government, however, downplayed the ban on the country's coal by a Chinese port, which coupled with additional supporting factors eased the bearish pressure, rather helped stage a goodish bounce on Friday. The US Dollar held on the defensive in wake of Thursday's soft US economic data, which reaffirmed market expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates steady and was evident from a fresh leg of downslide in the US Treasury bond yields. The Aussie further benefitted from upbeat remarks by RBA Governor Lowe, saying that there may be a case for a higher interest rate if the jobless rate drops below the current level of 5%. This coupled with growing optimism over a possible resolution of the US-China trade spat further underpinned the China-proxy Australian Dollar and remained supportive of the intraday move back above the 0.7100 handle. The world's two biggest economies were reported to be currently outlining a deal and may soon reach an agreement, albeit failed to provide any additional boost. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before traders again start positioning for any further near-term appreciating move amid absent relevant market moving economic releases from the US. However, speeches by influential FOMC members will be looked upon for some short-term trading opportunities later during the North-American session.Technical levels to watchAUD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.7106
    Today Daily change %: 0.08%
    Today Daily Open: 0.71
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.7155
    Daily SMA50: 0.7133
    Daily SMA100: 0.7161
    Daily SMA200: 0.7265
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.7207
    Previous Daily Low: 0.707
    Previous Weekly High: 0.7149
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.7053
    Previous Monthly High: 0.7296
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.6684
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.7122
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.7155
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.7044
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6988
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6907
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.7181
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.7263
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.7318  

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysts suggest that in today’s US session, economists cannot turn around without bumping into a member of the US Federal

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysts suggest that in today’s US session, economists cannot turn around without bumping into a member of the US Federal Reserve rushing to grab a microphone and say something.Key Quotes“New York Fed President Williams – the leading economic voice in a Fed run by a lawyer – is probably the one to watch.” “Williams speaks on inflation, which is a topic fascinating enough to write a book about.”

Turkey Capacity Utilization: 74% (February) vs previous 74.4%

Turkey Manufacturing Confidence climbed from previous 93 to 97.2 in February

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) in line with forecasts (-1.5%) in January

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) meets forecasts (1.1%) in January

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (1.4%) in January

European Monetary Union Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (-1.1%) in January: Actual (-1%)

Citibank analysts have revised their oil price forecasts as they expect OPEC+ to end cuts in 2H’19, with Brent averaging $64 in 1Q’19, & 4Q’19 averagi

Citibank analysts have revised their oil price forecasts as they expect OPEC+ to end cuts in 2H’19, with Brent averaging $64 in 1Q’19, & 4Q’19 averaging $67 under IMO 2020 pressures.Key Quotes“We see 2019 Brent averaging $64, revised up $2/bbl. However, we expect wide price realizations, with the possibility of $70 point prices at times in 1Q’19 & on. US pressure on S.Arabia & OPEC+ would likely resume if Brent prices exceed $70, while Russia looks increasingly reluctant to extend cuts much further.” “With a return of barrels in 2H’19, this could begin to drive builds in late 2019 going into 2020, and make for a volumetrically weak 2020-21, keeping deferred prices under pressure. We also adjust our bull case, and assign it a high 30% probability.” “Our bull case is for Brent to average $74 in 2019, hitting $80+ at times with OPEC+ holds cuts to year end. There could be further losses in supply, particularly in Iran & Venezuela. In our bear case (15% probab), we consider OPEC+ starting to raising oil production earlier than June, starting in April. S.Arabia could shift strategy from withholding production to raising output. Weaker demand could materialize after winter with macro downside risks. Supply could come back in Iran,or Libya. This could push prices to low $50s by 1H’20.”

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysis team are expecting that the US Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) program could come to an end this year, accordi

Union Bank of Switzerland’s analysis team are expecting that the US Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) program could come to an end this year, according to the minutes of the central bank's January meeting.Key Quotes“We don't think Fed's QT program is likely to be a significant direct drag on global economy & markets. For a start, Fed's balance sheet reduction represents only a partial reversal of post-2008 stimulus.” “We expect Fed assets, which expanded from USD 900bn pre-crisis to a peak of USD 4.5tr in 2017, to fall back only modestly to USD 3.5tr.” “Added to this, since investor demand for liquidity has fallen as investors feel safer, there is less danger that QT would cause liquidity to dry up or inflation to fall sharply.”

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that the German Ifo index, dropped for a sixth consecutive month and came in at 98.5 in February, from

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that the German Ifo index, dropped for a sixth consecutive month and came in at 98.5 in February, from 99.3 in January.Key Quotes“The drop was driven by both weaker current assessments and expectations, even though the current assessment lost more momentum than the expectations component. Today’s Ifo index somewhat undermines the tentative signs of stabilisation we saw earlier this week in the ZEW index and PMIs. The still-high uncertainties, mainly stemming from trade, China and Brexit are denting German business sentiment.” “Previous episodes suggest that manufacturing and service activities in Germany have moved in tandem. It is only since the start of 2015 that a structural break between the two has occurred, with services (as a proxy for domestic demand) flourishing, while the manufacturing sector went through significant fluctuations. Only time will tell whether this decoupling will last or whether the domestic side of the German economy will also show cracks in the course of the year.”

After briefly testing the 1.1350/60 band earlier in the session, EUR/USD came under some selling pressure in the wake of the publication of key German

The pair fades the uptick to daily highs beyond 1.1350.The greenback finds support in the mid-96.00s so far.German IFO survey missed expectations in February.After briefly testing the 1.1350/60 band earlier in the session, EUR/USD came under some selling pressure in the wake of the publication of key German data.EUR/USD offered on poor dataSpot erases initial gains after the key German IFO survey came in below expectations in all of its components for the month of February. In fact, Business Climate dropped to 98.5, Current Assessment ticked lower to 103.4 and Business Expectations receded to 93.8, all of them missing previous estimates. In the meantime, markets remains vigilant on any developments from the US-Sino trade negotiations, which appear as the main driver for the near term mood in the global markets. Looking ahead, final EMU inflation figures are expected to come in line with preliminary readings. Across the pond, Fed speaker should grab all the attention with the buck in centre stage.What to look for around EURThe shared currency continues to look to developments from the US-China trade talks for near term direction as well as any headlines from the effervescence on the US-EU trade front. Disappointing advanced prints from manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the euro bloc plus a ‘reality check’ from the ECB minutes appear to have exacerbated concerns over the deterioration in the bloc’s fundamentals and casted further shadows over the probability of any action on rates from the ECB this year.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.05% at 1.1340 facing the next up barrier at 1.1371 (high Feb.20) seconded by 1.1382 (55-day SMA) and then 1.1392 (100-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1310 (10-day SMA) would aim for 1.1234 (2019 low Feb.15) and finally 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12).

WTI (oil futures on NYMEX) broke its Asian consolidation phase to the upside and regained the 57 handle in the European session so far this Friday, as

Buoyed by increased odds of US-China trade deal hopes, as the US dollar remains broadly subdued. Focus on US-China trade progress, Bakers and Hughes US oil rigs count data due at 1800 GMTWTI (oil futures on NYMEX) broke its Asian consolidation phase to the upside and regained the 57 handle in the European session so far this Friday, as expectations of a trade resolution between the US and China gather steam and underpin the sentiment around the risk assets such as oil. Moreover, markets continue to cheer the hopes of tighter global supplies amid the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela and deepening OPEC output cuts. However, it remains to be seen if the bulls can retest the YTD tops amid growing economic slowdown concerns and rising US output levels. The US crude output has soared by almost 2.5 million bpd since the start of 2018, and by a whopping 5 million bpd since 2013. America is the only country to ever reach 12 million bpd of production, according to Reuters. Attention now turns towards the US-China trade talks, with the meeting between the US President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He closely eyed. Meanwhile, the US drilling sector activity report due at 1800 GMT will also hog the limelight for fresh momentum on the prices.WTI Technical Levels Overview:
    Today Last Price: 57.25
    Today Daily change: 30 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.53%
    Today Daily Open: 56.95
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 54.56
    Daily SMA50: 51.64
    Daily SMA100: 55.3
    Daily SMA200: 62.69
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 57.69
    Previous Daily Low: 56.74
    Previous Weekly High: 56.22
    Previous Weekly Low: 51.56
    Previous Monthly High: 55.48
    Previous Monthly Low: 44.52
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 57.1
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 57.33
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 56.56
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 56.18
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 55.61
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 57.51
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 58.08
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 58.46  

This is the official press release from Ifo Institute on business climate indicator:   Worries in the German business world continue to grow. The If

This is the official press release from Ifo Institute on business climate indicator:   Worries in the German business world continue to grow. The Ifo Business Climate Index fell from 99.3 points[1] in January to 98.5 points in February. This is the lowest level since December 2014. Companies again assessed their current business situation somewhat less favorably. Pessimism regarding the six–month outlook has also increased. These survey results, as well as other indicators, point to the economic growth of 0.2 percent in the first quarter. The economic situation in Germany remains weak. In manufacturing, the index has fallen for the sixth time in succession. Companies have revised their assessment of the current situation markedly downwards. Nevertheless, a clear majority continues to report a positive business situation. However, with regard to the business outlook, pessimism is growing. In the services, the business climate has deteriorated significantly. The service providers rated their business situation somewhat less favorably. With regard to the coming months, only a few companies still expect an improvement. In distribution, the index rose slightly. This was due to somewhat less pessimistic business expectations. The firms assessed the current business situation less favorably. Whereas the climate improved in the retail trade, it worsened among wholesalers. The business climate index deteriorated in construction. This was due to less favorable assessments of the business situation. However, expectations were revised slightly upwards.

DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:     Today Last Price: 96.55     Today Daily change: 14 pips     Today Daily change %: -0.06%     Toda

The index is now prolonging the sideline pattern in the 96.60 region, looking to add to Thursday’s gains, which in turn reverted five consecutive sessions with losses.The inability to gather some serious upside traction and the continuation of the consolidative mood should open the door for a potential resumption of the leg lower.In this scenario, immediate contention emerges in the .96.40/30 band, where converge weekly lows and the 100-, 55- and 21-day SMAs, all ahead of the more relevant support zone in the 200-day SMA, today at 95.59.DXY daily chart Dollar Index Spot Overview:
    Today Last Price: 96.55
    Today Daily change: 14 pips
    Today Daily change %: -0.06%
    Today Daily Open: 96.61
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 96.34
    Daily SMA50: 96.36
    Daily SMA100: 96.41
    Daily SMA200: 95.58
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 96.67
    Previous Daily Low: 96.36
    Previous Weekly High: 97.37
    Previous Weekly Low: 96.62
    Previous Monthly High: 96.96
    Previous Monthly Low: 95.03
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 96.55
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 96.48
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 96.42
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 96.24
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 96.11
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 96.73
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 96.86
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 97.04  

   •  The cross built on the overnight bounce from over three-week lows and traded with a positive bias for the third consecutive session on Thursday.

   •  The cross built on the overnight bounce from over three-week lows and traded with a positive bias for the third consecutive session on Thursday.   •  A sustained move beyond a short-term descending trend-line, extending from last Thursday, was seen as a key trigger for intraday bullish traders.   •  The positive momentum remained supported by bullish technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart and has now lifted the cross to 100-hour SMA.   •  A follow-through buying has the potential to lift the cross further towards its next hurdle near the 0.8740-50 region, coinciding with 200-hour SMA.   •  Meanwhile, oscillators on 4-hourly/daily charts are yet to catch up with the momentum and might turn out to be the only factor capping the up-move.EUR/GBP 1-hourly chartEUR/GBP Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.8707
    Today Daily change %: 0.11%
    Today Daily Open: 0.8697
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.8746
    Daily SMA50: 0.8861
    Daily SMA100: 0.8851
    Daily SMA200: 0.8864
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.8705
    Previous Daily Low: 0.8665
    Previous Weekly High: 0.8842
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.8743
    Previous Monthly High: 0.9119
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.8617
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.869
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.868
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.8673
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.8649
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.8633
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.8713
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.8729
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.8753  

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on the German growth out

The European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny is on the wires now, via Reuters, making some comments on the German growth outlook in Brussels.Key Headlines:German growth expectations are likely to be revised down. Does not see need for liquidity. Could consider special measures regarding bank lending.

EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:     Today Last Price: 125.71     Today Daily change: 36 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.16%     Today Dail

EUR/JPY is reverting yesterday’s pullback and is extending at the same time the sideline theme in the upper end of the range, still below the 126.00 handle.The short-term resistance line at 125.82 still caps the upside somewhat, although a breakout of this area should pave the way for a new visit to yearly peaks in the 126.00 region.A convincing break above the 126.00 handle opens the door for a test of late December tops around 127.00 the figure.EUR/JPY daily chart EUR/JPY Overview:
    Today Last Price: 125.71
    Today Daily change: 36 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.16%
    Today Daily Open: 125.51
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 125.07
    Daily SMA50: 125.25
    Daily SMA100: 127.05
    Daily SMA200: 128.21
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 125.88
    Previous Daily Low: 125.32
    Previous Weekly High: 125.54
    Previous Weekly Low: 124.19
    Previous Monthly High: 127.07
    Previous Monthly Low: 118.84
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 125.53
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 125.66
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 125.26
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 125.01
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 124.7
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 125.82
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 126.13
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 126.38  

The headline German IFO business climate index came in at 98.5 for February, weaker than last month's 99.1 and missing the consensus estimates pointin

The headline German IFO business climate index came in at 98.5 for February, weaker than last month's 99.1 and missing the consensus estimates pointing to a reading of 99.0. The current economic assessment also missed estimates and came in at 103.4 in the reported month as compared to last month's 104.3 and 103.9 anticipated. Meanwhile, the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months, also fell short of consensus estimates, arriving at 93.8 for February versus expectations of 94.2 and 94.2 recorded in January. The headline IFO business climate index was rebased and recalibrated in April after the IFO research Institute changed series from the base year of 2000 to the base year of 2005 as of May 2011 and then changed series to include services as of April 2018. The survey now includes 9,000 monthly survey responses from firms in the manufacturing, service sector, trade and construction. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Swedish central bank - Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves, added to the earlier comments and reiterated the view that Krona should strengthen, though

The Swedish central bank - Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves, added to the earlier comments and reiterated the view that Krona should strengthen, though could fluctuate in all sorts of ways in the short-term. Tolerance for inflation deviations is greater today that was 3-4 years ago and the recent dip in inflation expectations was very minor, is not a big issue. We will live with inflation fluctuating around 2%, Ingves added further.
 

Germany IFO - Expectations registered at 93.8, below expectations (94.2) in February

Germany IFO - Current Assessment came in at 103.4 below forecasts (103.9) in February

Germany IFO - Business Climate came in at 98.5, below expectations (99) in February

Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, suggests that the latest ECB Minutes of January meeting has set out a number of factors t

Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN AMRO, suggests that the latest ECB Minutes of January meeting has set out a number of factors that officials are grappling with, which could ultimately lower the central bank’s inflation outlook.Key Quotes“First, the Governing Council wanted to assess ‘the extent to which the weaker growth momentum might turn out to be more persistent than currently envisaged’. To this end, it took the view that ‘more information, including the March projections, was needed to deepen the analysis and obtain greater clarity before conclusions could be drawn about the medium-term inflation outlook’.” “Second, another source of uncertainty was ‘the transmission of higher wages to consumer price inflation’. It was noted that ‘there had so far been little response in underlying inflation measures to improving labour market conditions’. One reason was that companies had absorbed higher labour costs in their margins. While this could not go on forever, officials judged that ‘more structural or longer-lasting factors might still be at play, for example related to changes in the competitive environment’.” “Third, officials noted that ‘recent developments in longer-term inflation expectations’ as measured by ‘market-based and survey-based measures had fallen’.  Given that the ‘short-term outlook for inflation had weakened due to lower oil prices and weak developments in domestic services prices’ there was concern  ‘that there might be a risk that this renewed weakness could start to weigh on inflation expectations if it were to persist’.” “We continue to take the view that the ECB’s forecasts for core inflation are too high. The current quarter is likely to be the fourth successive one of sub-trend growth. There is still slack in the labour market, which should dampen wage growth. Low inflation expectations will also work in this direction. Furthermore, we take the view that the bargaining power of workers has declined due to globalisation and labour market reforms. Finally, weak demand could curtail corporate pricing power.” “We think the account is consistent with our base case that the ECB will signal that interest rates will be on hold for longer, while also announcing a new TLTRO. We think interest rates will ultimately be on hold until December 2020.”  

In light of flash data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, open interest rose by more than 1.3K contracts on Thursday, reverting three consecutive

In light of flash data for JPY futures markets from CME Group, open interest rose by more than 1.3K contracts on Thursday, reverting three consecutive pullbacks. In the same direction, volume ticked higher by around 10.5K contract.USD/JPY has legs for another attempt to 111.00Yesterday’s bounce off lows in USD/JPY was amidst rising open interest and volume, allowing for a potential extension of the recent gradual uptick with immediate target in the 111.00 neighbourhood.

Chidu Narayanan, economist at Standard Chartered, notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has acknowledged that chances of a rate hike and rate

Chidu Narayanan, economist at Standard Chartered, notes that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has acknowledged that chances of a rate hike and rate cut are now evenly balanced.Key Quotes“We still expect slowing construction activity to weigh on job creation in Q3. A spike in unemployment, combined with worsening consumer sentiment, would force the RBA to move, in our view, with rate cuts at consecutive meetings (in November and December).” “We had previously expected a prolonged pause. We also lower our growth and inflation forecasts to 2.7% and 2.2%, respectively, in both 2019 and 2020.” “The labour market will be the key driver for an RBA rate cut.” “The RBA’s hurdle to cut rates remains high; it is unlikely to cut rates unless conditions deteriorate significantly. A worsening labour market, which has been a source of strength for the RBA so far, will likely provide the ballast to change course.” “We expect the first rate cut in November, as the unemployment rate starts ticking up, and a subsequent rate cut at the following meeting. The risk is that the first cut is delayed; however, we expect back-to-back rate cuts from the RBA once it begins.”

   •  The pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained confined in a narrow trading band around 23.6% Fibonacci retracement leve

   •  The pair extended its sideways consolidative price action and remained confined in a narrow trading band around 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.2773-1.3109 recent upsurge.   •  The fact that the pair is holding below 50-hour SMA for the first time since last Friday, bearish technical indicators on the 1-hourly chart support prospects for an extension of the corrective slide.   •  However, bullish oscillators on 4-hourly/daily charts might help limit deeper losses and warrant some caution before positioning aggressively for any further near-term depreciating move.    •  Hence, traders are likely to wait for a sustained weakness below the key 1.30 psychological mark before confirming that the pair might have already topped out in the near-term.   •  Below the mentioned handle, the pair is likely to accelerate the downfall towards 50% Fibo. level, albeit a move beyond 1.3100 handle might negate any near-term bearish expectations. GBP/USD 1-hourly chartGBP/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.3037
    Today Daily change %: -0.01%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3038
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.2997
    Daily SMA50: 1.2858
    Daily SMA100: 1.2879
    Daily SMA200: 1.2997
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3096
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3026
    Previous Weekly High: 1.2959
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.2773
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3214
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.2438
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3053
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3069
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.301
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.2983
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.2941
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.308
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3123
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.315  

Hong Kong SAR Consumer Price Index dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.4% in January

   •  A subdued USD demand/retracing US bond yields helped regain some traction.    •  US-China trade optimism undermines safe-haven demand and seemed

   •  A subdued USD demand/retracing US bond yields helped regain some traction.
   •  US-China trade optimism undermines safe-haven demand and seemed to cap.
Gold edged higher on the last trading day of the week and recovered a part of the overnight sharp fall back closer to weekly lows. The precious metal stalled this week's retracement slide from ten-month tops and managed to regain some positive traction on Friday. A subdued US Dollar demand, led by a weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields, turned out to be one of the key factors benefitting the dollar-denominated commodity. Meanwhile, investors looked past the latest FOMC meeting minutes, with Thursday's weaker US macro data - durable goods orders and Philly Fed manufacturing index reaffirming expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates steady and extending some additional support to the non-yielding yellow metal.  Further gains, however, remained limited in wake of the latest positive trade news, wherein the world's two biggest economies were reported to be currently outlining a deal and may soon reach an agreement, which dampened the precious metal's perceived relative safe-haven status.  In absence of any major market moving economic releases from the US, speeches by influential FOMC members will play an important role in influencing the price-action and might produce some meaningful trading opportunities on the last trading day of the week. Technical levels to watchImmediate resistance is now pegged near the $1330 level, above which the commodity is likely to accelerate the up-move towards $1335-36 supply zone before eventually aiming to surpass the $1340 hurdle. On the flip side, the $1321-20 region now seems to have emerged as immediate support, which if broken might prompt some additional weakness towards $1315-14 horizontal support en-route $1306-04 zone.
 

In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair is well placed for a challenge to the 1.3217 recent high. Key Quotes “Just above here w

In view of Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, GBP/USD pair is well placed for a challenge to the 1.3217 recent high.Key Quotes“Just above here we find the 55 week ma at 1.3236 and the 1.3298/September 2019 high. This represents a key band of resistance and we look for the market to fail in this vicinity. Dips lower will find interim support at 1.2997, the 200 day ma. This guards the recent low at 1.2772.”

The Swedish central bank - Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves crossed the wires in the last hour and said:    •  Sweden economy remains strong.    •  Lo

The Swedish central bank - Riksbank Governor Stefan Ingves crossed the wires in the last hour and said:    •  Sweden economy remains strong.
   •  Looking at details of the latest inflation data.
   •  January can be a difficult month because of changes to weights.

Austria HICP (YoY) remains at 1.7% in January

Austria HICP (MoM) dipped from previous 0.1% to -1.1% in January

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that according to the second estimate, the German economy came to a halt in the fourth quarter. Key Qu

Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, notes that according to the second estimate, the German economy came to a halt in the fourth quarter.Key Quotes“On the year, GDP growth was still up by 0.9% (not-seasonally adjusted). More interestingly, the growth components actually show an economy that is running on almost all cylinders. Private consumption grew by 0.2% QoQ, government consumption was up by 1.6% QoQ, investments accelerated by 0.9% QoQ and despite all trade war fears even net exports remained flat.” “With none of the traditional growth components being negative, the question arises why the economy is still on the brink of a recession? The answer is clear: cars are still blocking the road to a rebound.” “Normally, inventories are a neglected residual in national accounts. Since the second quarter of 2018, however, they are the best illustration for the German economy’s car problem. In the second and third quarter, the inventory build up contributed a total of 1.1 percentage points to QoQ GDP growth.” “A reflection of strong production activity in the automotive sector for ...parking lots as many produced cars could not be delivered due to missed deadlines on new emission standards. Now in the fourth quarter, inventory reductions subtracted 0.6 percentage points from QoQ GDP growth, suggesting that many German cars were finally delivered to clients.”  

   •  A subdued USD demand fails to assist build on the overnight up-move.    •  Bullish oil prices underpin Loonie and further collaborate towards ca

   •  A subdued USD demand fails to assist build on the overnight up-move.
   •  Bullish oil prices underpin Loonie and further collaborate towards capping.
   •  Traders now eye Canadian retail sales/Fedspeaks for some fresh impetus.
The USD/CAD pair struggled to build on the overnight goodish up-move and traded with a mild negative bias on the last trading day of the week.  A combination of factors assisted the pair to catch some aggressive bids on Thursday and extend the previous session's post-FOMC minutes rebound from the very important 200-day SMA and snap four consecutive days of losing streak.  The BoC Governor Stephen Poloz sounded cautious in his latest remarks on Thursday, saying that the limitations of monetary policy mean that it cannot solve all economic problems, and exerted some downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar.  This coupled with a modest pullback in crude oil prices, following the release of the weekly EIA report that showed a larger than expected buildup in US inventories, further undermined demand for the commodity-linked currency - Loonie and provided an additional boost.  With oil prices regaining some positive traction on Friday, a subdued US Dollar price action, primarily on the back of a weaker tone around the US Treasury bond yields, kept a lid on any strong follow-through, rather prompted some selling at higher levels. The downside, however, is likely to remain limited as market participants now look forward to the release of Canadian monthly retail sales data, which coupled with speeches by influential FOMC members, might produce some meaningful trading opportunities during the North-American session.Technical levels to watchUSD/CAD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.322
    Today Daily change %: -0.01%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3221
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3216
    Daily SMA50: 1.335
    Daily SMA100: 1.3259
    Daily SMA200: 1.3156
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.3234
    Previous Daily Low: 1.3162
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3341
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.3196
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3664
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.3118
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3206
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3189
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3178
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3134
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3106
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3249
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3277
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3321  

The European Union (EU) Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier is on the wires now, via Reuters, expressing his concerns over a potential Hard Brexit.

The European Union (EU) Chief Brexit Negotiator Michel Barnier is on the wires now, via Reuters, expressing his concerns over a potential Hard Brexit.Key Headlines:More worried than before on the potential for a hard Brexit. Cannot exclude the possibility of Brexit delay. More discussions are needed, not time. A hard Brexit would be 'very serious' for the UK.

The German IFO Business Survey Overview The German IFO survey for February is slated for release later today at 0900 GMT. The headline IFO Business C

The German IFO Business Survey OverviewThe German IFO survey for February is slated for release later today at 0900 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to drop to 99.0 versus 99.1 previous. The Current Assessment sub-index is also seen weaker at 103.9 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to stay unchanged at 94.2 in the reported month.Deviation impact on EUR/USDReaders can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.  How could affect EUR/USD?The spot could stall its upside momentum and drop back below the 1.1300 level on a bigger-than-expected drop in the IFO indicators while the EUR/USD pair could extend the gains further towards the 1.1400 level on a positive surprise.   According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “Bearish traders are likely to wait for a convincing break below the 1.1300 handle before positioning for any further depreciating move towards 1.1260-50 intermediate support en-route multi-month lows, around the 1.1215 region.  On the flip side, the 1.1360-70 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong hurdle and is closely followed by 50-day SMA, just ahead of the 1.1400 handle. The mentioned hurdle seems more likely to continue capping any attempted intraday up-move, though a sustained strength beyond might trigger a short-covering move towards a near five-month-old descending trend-line resistance, currently near the 1.1460-65 region.”Key NotesEurozone: German IFO and Italian rating review in focus - TDS EUR futures: scope for extra consolidation EU'S Malmstrom expects to get mandate for US talks in MarchAbout the German IFO Business ClimateThis German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY): 5.1% (4Q) vs 1.4%

According to Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, the US economic data demonstrated weakness across several indicators, with only i

According to Vladimir Miklashevsky, senior economist at Danske Bank, the US economic data demonstrated weakness across several indicators, with only initial jobless claims keeping a spark of positivism.Key Quotes“The ISM-adjusted Philly Fed release at 52.4 was the poorest reading since October 2016, while the Philly Fed headline index went negative for the first time since May 2016.” “The decline in the new orders sub-index of more than 23pt was the biggest one-month decline since October 2008. New orders fell to their weakest level since May 2016.” “As the 1 March and a US-imposed deadline to reach a trade agreement approaches, the US and China’s trade negotiators continued high-level talks in Washington yesterday to hash out a deal that could end their trade war. It is unclear whether the latest round of talks, which are due to conclude today, may be extended into next week, and where those future negotiations might occur, Reuters writes. If the two countries fail to reach an agreement by the 1 March, US tariffs on USD200bn of Chinese imports are set to rise 10% to 25%.”

   •  US-China trade optimism helped regain some positive traction on Friday.    •  A subdued USD demand/weaker US bond yields kept a lid on further g

   •  US-China trade optimism helped regain some positive traction on Friday.
   •  A subdued USD demand/weaker US bond yields kept a lid on further gains.
The USD held on to its modest gains against its Japanese counterpart, helping the USD/JPY pair to recover a part of the previous session's downtick. News of progress in the US-China trade talks dampened Japanese Yen's safe-haven status and was seen as one of the key factors that helped the pair to regain some positive traction on the last trading day of the week.  The uptick, however, has been limited, at least for the time being, in wake of a subdued US Dollar demand, amid a weaker tone surrounding the US Treasury bond yields and the overnight softer US economic data. An unexpected fall in durable goods orders, coupled with weaker Philly Fed manufacturing index and existing home sales reaffirmed expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates steady and kept a lid on any runaway rally. There isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release on Friday and hence, scheduled speeches by influential FOMC member will now be looked upon for some impetus later during the North-American session.Technical levels to watchImmediate resistance is pegged near 110.85 horizontal level and is closely followed by the 111.00 round figure mark, above which the pair is likely to aim towards testing 100-day SMA, around the 111.50-55 region. On the flip side, the 110.55-50 region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might turn the pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards challenging the key 110.00 psychological mark.
 

Analysts at TD Securities point out that today, the German IFO survey is released for February, and markets look for a decline in the Current Assessme

Analysts at TD Securities point out that today, the German IFO survey is released for February, and markets look for a decline in the Current Assessment Index to 103.9, while the Expectations Index remains broadly unchanged at 94.3.Key Quotes“Italy currently holds a BBB Negative rating from Fitch, but this comes up for review on Friday. Italy has slipped into recession since Fitch's last update in August, and diminished 2019 growth prospects are likely to lead to a rating downgrade to BBB- Negative (stable). While it could be bearish for rates, the downgrade should not have index implications.” “Final euro area inflation figures for January are also released and will provide details on the upside surprise in core inflation registered that month.”

EUR/USD remains within the broad consolidative theme in the second half of the week amidst scarce volatility and cautiousness over the outcome of the

Rangebound trade prevails in the pair around 1.1340.German IFO survey next of relevance in the docket.Fedspeakers will take centre stage across the pond.EUR/USD remains within the broad consolidative theme in the second half of the week amidst scarce volatility and cautiousness over the outcome of the US-China trade talks.EUR/USD looks to trade for directionSpot remains sidelined at the end of the week and is tracking the generalized lack of direction in the global markets, while investors keep looking to headlines from the US-Sino trade talks in Washington, which are due to conclude today. The shared currency stayed apathetic following the ECB minutes on Thursday, where the Council acknowledged the ongoing slowdown in the bloc could last longer than expected, adding that more time and data is needed to gauge whether it is temporary or it has more structural components. In the data space today, German final Q4 GDP showed the economy expanded 0.9% on a yearly basis during Q4, matching the preliminary readings. Later in the session, the German IFO survey is due seconded by final January inflation figures in the euro area and the speech by President M.Drgahi in Bologna (Italy). Across the pond, Fedspeak will be in centre stage later today, as several FOMC governors will take part in a panel to discuss the balance sheet in New York.What to look for around EURThe shared currency continues to look to developments from the US-China trade talks for near term direction as well as any headlines from the effervescence on the US-EU trade front. Disappointing advanced prints from manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the euro bloc plus a ‘reality check’ from the ECB minutes appear to have exacerbated concerns over the deterioration in the bloc’s fundamentals and casted further shadows over the probability of any action on rates from the ECB this year.EUR/USD levels to watchAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.09% at 1.1344 facing the next up barrier at 1.1371 (high Feb.20) seconded by 1.1382 (55-day SMA) and then 1.1392 (100-day SMA). On the other hand, a break below 1.1310 (10-day SMA) would aim for 1.1234 (2019 low Feb.15) and finally 1.1215 (2018 low Nov.12).

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/USD pair has continued to probe higher having recovered from the 1.1216 November low but

Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that the EUR/USD pair has continued to probe higher having recovered from the 1.1216 November low but is currently stalled at the 20 day ma at 1.1360.Key Quotes“Our attention remains on the 1.1516 200 day ma. It has managed to regain 1.1342 (last weeks high) and this should alleviate immediate downside pressure. Above the 200 day ma will re-target the 1.1623 mid October high and slightly longer term we look for gains to 1.1702, the 55 week ma.” “Long term trend (1-3 months): A rise above the recent high at 1.1623 would confirm a trend reversal and put the 55 week moving average at 1.1723 back on the cards.”

Germany Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets forecasts (0.9%) in 4Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) in line with expectations (0%) in 4Q

Germany Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY) meets expectations (0.6%) in 4Q

The European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that limited trade deal with the US co

The European Union (EU) Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom was on the wires last minutes, via Reuters, noting that limited trade deal with the US could be possible by end-October. She added that she expects to get the mandate for the US talks in March.

Reuters reports the latest statement released by the Bank of Ireland, citing that it will set aside 2 billion euros (GBP 1.74 billion) for lending to

Reuters reports the latest statement released by the Bank of Ireland, citing that it will set aside 2 billion euros (GBP 1.74 billion) for lending to small and medium businesses that need capital to adapt to the challenges of Britain’s departure from the European Union (EU). Gavin Kelly, CEO of Retail Ireland at Bank of Ireland, noted: “This 2 billion euro fund will provide support to businesses regardless of how the UK exits the EU.” 

   •  The pair extended this week's rejection slide from the 0.6900 handle and remained under some heavy bearish pressure for the third consecutive se

   •  The pair extended this week's rejection slide from the 0.6900 handle and remained under some heavy bearish pressure for the third consecutive session.   •  The overnight slide below 200-hour SMA confirmed a bearish double-top reversal chart pattern and the downfall accelerated further after RBNZ's rate cut hint.NZD/USD 1-hourly chart   •  The pair dropped to test 100-day SMA support, albeit slightly oversold conditions on the 1-hourly chart turned out to be the only factor helping limit deeper losses.   •  Meanwhile, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative momentum and seemed to suggest an extension of the recent downward trajectory.   •  Sustained weakness below the mentioned support, coinciding with near five-month-old ascending trend-line would pave the way for further depreciating move.Daily chart
  NZD/USD Overview:
    Today Last Price: 0.6776
    Today Daily change %: -0.53%
    Today Daily Open: 0.6812
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 0.6835
    Daily SMA50: 0.6787
    Daily SMA100: 0.6744
    Daily SMA200: 0.6752
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 0.6878
    Previous Daily Low: 0.6797
    Previous Weekly High: 0.6875
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.6719
    Previous Monthly High: 0.694
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.6516
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 0.6828
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 0.6847
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.678
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.6748
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.6699
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 0.6861
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 0.691
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 0.6942  

FX option expiries for Feb 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1250 791m 1.1270 775m 1.1300 1.

FX option expiries for Feb 22 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.1250 791m 1.1270 775m 1.1300 1.6bn USD/JPY: USD amounts  110.00 1.8bn 110.70 470m 111.00 473m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3180 540m 1.3215 505m

CME Group’s preliminary figures for GBP futures markets noted investors once again scaled back their open interest positions on Thursday, this time by

CME Group’s preliminary figures for GBP futures markets noted investors once again scaled back their open interest positions on Thursday, this time by nearly 2.8K contracts vs. Wednesday’s final 197,448 contracts. In the same line, volume shrunk by around 27.5K contracts.GBP/USD stays supported around 1.3000Cable is extending the sideline theme in line with the rest of its risk-associated peers amidst declining open interest and volume. That said, and coupled with the ongoing retracement, could allow for a potential squeeze higher in the near term. Further downside should meet strong support in the 1.3000 neighbourhood.

Analysts at Danske Bank point out that today brings the German Ifo figures and will be a key economic release for today’s session.  Key Quotes “Afte

Analysts at Danske Bank point out that today brings the German Ifo figures and will be a key economic release for today’s session. Key Quotes“After the economy had a disappointing growth finish in 2018, we will keep an eye out for signs of a rebound in activity following the latest encouraging signs from Chinese leadings indicators and the German car sector.” “In the US, many FOMC members are speaking about the target level for the Fed's balance sheet at a conference in New York. However, after Fed minutes on Wednesday revealed that almost all Fed board members want to end the balance sheet reduction by the end of the year, the market impact of today's speeches will probably be more limited.” “In the Scandies, the Riksbank is due to publish minutes from the 12 February meeting today at 09:30 CET. The monetary policy decision was taken with only five Board members as Deputy Governor Per Jansson was absent for personal reasons. In connection with the release, Jansson will make a written comment about the decision.”  

According to analysts at TD Securities, the RBA’s semi-annual testimony on monetary policy was a staid affair. Key Quotes “After reading the opening

According to analysts at TD Securities, the RBA’s semi-annual testimony on monetary policy was a staid affair.Key Quotes“After reading the opening statement, three hours of questions kept returning to a few main themes: (1) why is consumption the main downside risk (RBA: not house prices, but weaker incomes, behind softer consumption); (2) why did the bank discuss QE (RBA: from a risk management perspective if there is a crisis it is in the toolbox, but right now "extremely" unlikely to need it); (3) impact of China coal import ban (RBA: not necessarily political and not expected to derail the economy). As expected no need to discuss the exchange rate, except the Governor was surprised it fell so much on the China coal import ban headlines. RBA confirmed that wages/income growth is needed for a rate hike, but a long way from taking that decision (RBA: no hike this year).”

Open interest in EUR futures markets dropped for the third consecutive session on Thursday, this time by almost 2.5K contracts vs. Wednesday’s final 5

Open interest in EUR futures markets dropped for the third consecutive session on Thursday, this time by almost 2.5K contracts vs. Wednesday’s final 530,938 contracts. On the other hand, volume increased by nearly 31K contracts, partically reverting the previous build.EUR/USD neutral outlook unchangedChoppy activity in volume and a slight downtrend in open interest leave the door open for the continuation of the broad consolidative theme in EUR/USD for the time being. In this scenario, however, another test of the arewa below the 1.1300 handle should not be ruled out.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. its main competitors, is extending the recovery from recent lows and is navigating the 96.60

The index adds to yesterday’s gains in the 96.65/70 band.US 10-year yields lost momentum near 2.70%.Fedspeak expected to drive the mood in the buck.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. its main competitors, is extending the recovery from recent lows and is navigating the 96.60/70 band.US Dollar Index looks to FedspeakersThe index is up for the second session in a row today, regaining some buying interest after bottoming out in weekly lows new 96.30 earlier in the week. The greenback has reverted a negative first half of the week, as rising hopes on a probable deal on the US-China trade dispute have been sustaining the better mood in the risk-associated assets. However, the FOMC minutes appear to have put some floor to the buck’s decline this week, as although they sounded somewhat dovish regarding the balance sheet, the tone was different when came to rates, leaving the likeliness of further hikes well on the table this year, albeit (very) data dependent In the US data space, a slew of Fed speakers should keep the buck entertained throughout the day: Atlanta Fed R.Bostic (non-voter, dovish) speaks in New York, VP R.Clarida (permanent voter, dovish) and NY Fed J.Williams (permanent voter, centrist) will discuss inflation in New York. Furthermore, St. Louis fed J.Bullard (voter, dovish), Philly Fed P.Harker (non voter, dovish) and R.Quarles (permanent voter, centrist) will take part in a panel discussion on the balance sheet.What to look for around USDThe FOMC minutes were not as dovish as expected. In fact, the Committee signalled the recent shift in the Fed’s stance was not associated to weakness in the economy but to rising uncertainty in the global markets. Despite the low inflation was back on the debate, the Fed did not rule out further hikes later in the year, although a move on rates remains highly data dependent. On another front, the US-Sino trade talks remain the almost exclusive driver for the markets’ mood in the near term. Furthermore, the deterioration in overseas fundamentals in combination with ‘softer’ stance in G10 central banks should keep occasional dips in the buck somewhat shallow.US Dollar Index relevant levelsAt the moment, the pair is gaining 0.02% at 96.63 facing the next hurdle at 96.80 (10-day SMA) followed by 97.09 (high Feb.19) and then 97.37 (2019 high Feb.15). On the flip side, a breach of 96.29 (low Feb.20) will target 96.22 (38.2% Fibo of the September-December up move) en route to 95.59 (200-day SMA).

Forex today stuck to tight trading ranges in Asia on the final trading of this week, except for the Kiwi, as markets remained in a wait and see mode a

Forex today stuck to tight trading ranges in Asia on the final trading of this week, except for the Kiwi, as markets remained in a wait and see mode awaiting the outcome of the crucial US-China trade talks. Meanwhile, the NZD/USD pair witnessed a sharp 50-pips sell-off and tested weekly lows near 0.6760 levels after the rate cut talks from the RBNZ Deputy Governor Bascand weighed heavily on the domestic currency. The Aussie, on the other hand, managed to regain the bids and held near the 0.71 handle amid trade deal hopes while the USD/JPY pair tried to take out 110.85 barrier, having found buyers again near 110.60 levels, despite moderate risk-off action in the Asian equities. The risk sentiment remained sour as weakening global outlook somewhat offset the optimism over trade progress.On the commodities front, both crude benchmarks traded little changed while gold prices on Comex bounced off a dip to 1324 levels although the recovery remained capped below the 1330 barrier.Main Topics in AsiaRBA Governor Lowe’s speechCentral scenario is 3% GDP growth this year Rate outlook more evenly balanced, hike next year may be appropriate Labor market likely lagging previous strong GDPOther HeadlinesJapan's Aso: Trump has not mentioned currencies when discussing trade issues with Japan USD/CNH Technical Analysis: Doji suggests temporary low in place US bets on China’s special envoy in trade talks - WSJ Trump: US economy is stronger than it's ever been before US-China trade talks said to be positive - CNBC Australian PM Morrison denies souring of relationship with China RBNZ: Rise in bank capital could lead to eventual rate cut, Kiwi drops 50-pips Gold Technical Analysis: Bouncing off 200-hour MA BoJ’s Kuroda: There are some risks to the economic outlook, including trade protectionism Australian TradeMin Birmingham believes China has applied restrictions to all coal exportersKey Focus AheadFriday’s EUR macro calendar is a busy affair, kicking-off with the German Q4 final GDP figures at 0700 GMT, soon followed by the Swiss Q4 industrial and construction production data. The main headline for this session is likely to be the German IFO business climate survey for the current month that will drop in at 0930 GMT. At 1000 GMT, the Eurozone final CPI readings will be published that are likely to confirm the flash reports. The UK docket has no first-tier economic releases and hence, the UK traders will keep an eye on the Brexit-related developments and CBI Distributive Trades survey due at 1100 GMT. The NA session is relatively data-light, with nothing out of the US while Canada sees the key retail sales release at 1330 GMT.  Also, of note remains the Baker Hughes US oil rig count data slated for release at 1800 GMT. Meanwhile, markets eagerly look forward to the outcome on US-China trade front, as the US President Trump is scheduled to meet with the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House later in the day.              Besides, a bevy of global central bankers will be seen making appearances in the American session. 1515 GMT: Fed’s Williams 1530 GMT: ECB President Draghi 1700 GMT: Fed’s Clarida 1830 GMT: Fed’s Quarles and Bullard EUR/USD's revival has a new target, focus on German data and Draghi speech The German GDP, scheduled for release at 07:00 GMT, is expected to show the growth rate stalled in the fourth quarter. The EUR could also take cues from the forward-looking German IFO readings, due at 09:00 GMT. GBP/USD stuck around 1.3030, trade and Brexit details awaited Looking forward, the UK PM May will be meeting a few other EU leaders over the weekend in order to provide last ditched efforts to secure a Brexit deal that can be passed through parliament. US Dollar: Looking for the next trend The evolution of Fed policy, the US-China dispute, Brexit and the expansion of the American economy may again provide solid reasons for buying the dollar.  It depends on how these issues play out. White House: Trump to meet Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Friday - Reuters The White House made an announcement late-Thursday, citing that the US President Donald Trump will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on Friday, Reuters reports.  

WTI daily chart WTI trades around $56.50 on early Friday. The crude benchmark portrays “rising wedge” bearish formation if connecting highs throug

WTI daily chartWTI trades around $56.50 on early Friday.The crude benchmark portrays “rising wedge” bearish formation if connecting highs through mid-December and the lows since December 24.100-day simple moving average (SMA) level of $56.20 acts as immediate support, a break of which can trigger declines to 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its October – December downturn, at $55.45.During the quote’s additional downturn past-$55.45, $54.00 may offer an intermediate halt towards formation support of $53.30, which if broken can push sellers to aim for 50-day SMA level of $51.30.Meanwhile, pattern resistance at $57.80 could cap nearby upside ahead of highlighting $58.00 and $58.75-80 to buyers.Should there be additional rise past-$58.80, 50% Fibonacci retracement around $59.50, $60.00 round-figure and 200-day SMA level of $62.85 might flash on bulls’ radar.WTI 4-Hour chartA closer look at the chart reveals that an upward sloping trend-line stretched since early last week, at $56.30, may come forward earlier than $56.20 support discussed above. Also, $55.55 can act as buffer ahead of $55.45.On the upside, $57.15 could restrict adjacent rise before $57.80 whereas a support-turned-resistance, at $58.30, can stop the advances to $58.80.WTI hourly chartThe nearby downward sloping resistance-line, at $56.80, can be termed as a close call for the energy benchmark that can lead towards $57.15 and $57.80 during the further rise.Alternatively, $56.30, $55.25 and $54.90 are some additional numbers that should be taken care of if holding short positions.

In view of analysts at ING, any agreement between the US and China on the need to keep the renminbi stable could reduce the tail risk of a competitive

In view of analysts at ING, any agreement between the US and China on the need to keep the renminbi stable could reduce the tail risk of a competitive devaluation in the renminbi.Key Quotes“Again, Washington is more interested in its trade deficit with China (and the USD/CNY bilateral rate), than it is about an IMF-style need for a clean float in the renminbi.” “The FX options market is well on the way to pricing lower tail risk of a CNY devaluation, where the CNY smile curve now shows much lower implied volatility levels for low delta USD calls/CNY puts.” “Stability in USD/CNY and lower levels of volatility should be positive for Asian FX. Were the USD/CNY stability story to develop, CNY realised volatility could actually drop back (e.g. 3m USD/CNY realised volatility to 3% from 4% currently) helping Asian FX volatility lower across the board.” “Such a trend could be beneficial for risk-adjusted carry trades in Asia. This environment could see the Indonesian rupiah outperform its steep forward curve (where implied 3m yields through the Non Deliverable Forward are still a high 7.3%).”  

According to Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, even though the RBA has cut its growth forecasts in the Feb SoMP, but in their view, they are still too

According to Sean Callow, analyst at Westpac, even though the RBA has cut its growth forecasts in the Feb SoMP, but in their view, they are still too optimistic. Key Quotes“As the housing downturn deepens, the pressure on the highly indebted consumer will grow, while the fall in residential construction is likely to be deeper than previously thought. Westpac Economics has cut its growth forecast to just 2.2% in 2019 and 2020, which is low enough to lower interest rates.” “Westpac now expects the RBA to cut the cash rate in Aug and Nov 2019. This forecast rattled AUD/USD, knocking it down 0.6c. Yet global factors are somewhat supportive for the Aussie.” “CNH is the strongest Asian currency over the week as the structure of a US-China trade agreement is revealed. This is very helpful background for AUD, as is the resilience of key commodity prices such as iron ore and coking coal. Barring a hawkish surprise from Fed chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony, AUD/USD should probe the upper end of this month’s ranges.”

Elisabeth Andreae, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the decisive factor for the South African economy is whether the rating agency Moody's mainta

Elisabeth Andreae, analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that the decisive factor for the South African economy is whether the rating agency Moody's maintains its assessment for the sovereign rating.Key Quotes“It is the only one of the three major agencies to still award investment grade. The result of the review will be announced on 29 March. In our view, the lack of success in consolidating public finances and reviving the economy has increased the risk of a rating downgrade. We therefore expect at least a deterioration in the rating outlook to negative, which will be followed by a renewed rating review after a few months.” “We expect the rating decision scheduled for 29 March to weigh more heavily on the rand in the coming weeks. In addition, in the course of the forthcoming elections, we expect to see sharper campaign rhetoric, which could fuel uncertainty about the political course. And last but not least, it should be remembered that the rand remains at the mercy of global risk sentiment.” “Recently, the rand has benefitted from a brightening risk mood due to positive news on trade negotiations between the USA and China. However, the mood can change quickly in view of the global risks. We therefore advise ZAR investors to exercise caution.”

Krishen Rangasamy, analyst at National Bank Financial, points out that in the US, the Trump administration is once again contemplating using Section 2

Krishen Rangasamy, analyst at National Bank Financial, points out that in the US, the Trump administration is once again contemplating using Section 232 of the U.S. Trade Expansion Act to impose tariffs on grounds of national security.Key Quotes“While last June such legal arguments were made to impose import tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, this time Washington is targeting auto imports which totalled more than US$350 billion last year.” “Mexico and Canada are the most exposed although the USMCA trade deal, if approved by the U.S. Congress later this year, will largely shield those economies from such tariffs. With no such protection, Japan and Germany would be the most exposed considering they account for 15% and 8% respectively of the U.S. auto market.” “Their exposures are even higher for passenger cars which are more likely to be targeted by Section 232. Both Japan and Germany could have done without those additional uncertainties given that their factories are already in contraction mode according to Markit’s purchasing managers indices.”

Risk reversals for shorter-dated USD/CAD options shifted to a put skew this week, suggesting some market participants expect dollar weakness near term

Risk reversals for shorter-dated USD/CAD options shifted to a put skew this week, suggesting some market participants expect dollar weakness near term. As of writing, one-month 25-delta USD/CAD risk reversals are trading in favor of -0.25 puts vs 0.35 calls on Dec. 31. The negative number indicates that implied volatility premium (or demand) for USD/CAD puts is higher than that for calls. A put option gives the owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell an underlying asset at an agreed price on or before a particular date.Risk reversals

GBP/USD showing little moves around 1.3030 while heading towards European open on Friday. The pair declined during the last two days on Brexit pessimi

GBP/USD remains around 1.3030 before London open on Friday.Mixed outcomes from the Brexit and trade deal between the US and China confine the pair moves.Friday’s Trump-He meet and PM May’s weekend meetings with the EU officials will be observed for further direction. GBP/USD showing little moves around 1.3030 while heading towards European open on Friday. The pair declined during the last two days on Brexit pessimism, contrast to upbeat sentiment favoring the US-China trade deal. However, there has been less movement since today morning as investors await further details on the two critical issues discussed. The UK Prime Minister Theresa May visited the European Union Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker and both the leaders said they are making progress towards solving Irish backstop issue. Assuring the progress, the British finance minister Philip Hammond said that talks with Brussels had been constructive and that lawmakers could vote on a revised deal as early as next week. However, several members from the ruling and the opposition party quit recently and there were challenges to the talks from the EU. On the US part, welcome progress on the first day of Chinese Vice Premier Liu He’s Washington visit ward of the negatives emanating from data miss by the Philly Fed manufacturing index and Markit manufacturing purchasing manager index. Looking forward, the UK PM May will be meeting a few other EU leaders over the weekend in order to provide last ditched efforts to secure a Brexit deal that can be passed through parliament. Meanwhile, the US President Donald Trump will also meet Liu He during Friday afternoon and may push the US-China deal forward. It should also be noted that no major economics are scheduled for release during Friday for either the UK or the US.GBP/USD Technical AnalysisThe 200-day simple moving average (SMA) level of 1.3000 works as immediate support for the pair, a break of which may drag prices to the 1.2960 and 1.2910 levels. On the upside, 1.3100 and 1.3140 could limit the pair’s near-term advances before diverting buyers towards 1.3215.

The channel breakdown seen in AUD/USD's 4-hour chart indicates the pair could soon fall back to recent lows near 0.7050. It also means the probabilit

The channel breakdown seen in AUD/USD's 4-hour chart indicates the pair could soon fall back to recent lows near 0.7050. It also means the probability of pair validating yesterday's bearish outside candle with a close below 0.7070 is high. That would open the doors for a deeper drop below the psychological support of 0.70.4-hour chartDaily chartTrend: Bearish  

Analysts at Westpac have changed its RBA call to two 25bp cuts in 2019, following a marked deceleration in Australian GDP growth in the second half of

Analysts at Westpac have changed its RBA call to two 25bp cuts in 2019, following a marked deceleration in Australian GDP growth in the second half of 2018, in addition to the rising domestic and global risks.Key Quotes“Westpac had previously anticipated growth of 2.6%yr in 2019 and 2020, but we are now forecasting growth of just 2.2%yr for both years. This contrasts with the RBA’s around 3.0%yr central scenario for 2019 and 2.75%yr in 2020.” “With respect to the labour market, whereas the RBA anticipates a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.75% at end-2020, we expect the unemployment rate to rise to “5.5% in the second half of 2019 and further by end 2020”. In terms of the timing of the rate cuts, we look to the August meeting for the first cut, followed by a second in November.” “The key risk to our weaker growth forecast and call for two rate cuts is the labour market. This week, 39k new jobs were reported for January, more than twice the market estimate and enough to keep annual employment growth at 2.2%yr. Though this pace of growth was above population growth, the unemployment rate remained unchanged in January as participation lifted further.”

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham, with the key headlines found below. Believes China has impos

Reuters reports the latest comments from the Australian Trade Minister Simon Birmingham, with the key headlines found below. Believes China has imposed import quotas that have been applied before. Believes China has applied restrictions to all coal exporters. Last hour, the Australian PM Morrison denied souring of relationship with China.

EUR/USD's stalled recovery rally will likely gather traction if the newfound resistance of 1.1370 is convincingly breached. The long upper shadow att

EUR/USD's recovery rally has stalled in the last two days. Repeated failure at 1.1370 is a slight cause of concern for the bulls.German GDP, scheduled for release at 07:00 GMT, is expected to show the growth rate stalled in the fourth quarter. The EUR could also take cues from the forward-looking German IFO readings, due at 09:00 GMT.ECB President Mario Draghi delivers Speech on the occasion of the awarding of Laurea honoris causa to him by Universita degli studi di Bologna in Bologna, Italy, according to Reuters. The central bank head is likely to sound dovish, confirming a rate hike is unlikely to happen any time soon.EUR/USD's stalled recovery rally will likely gather traction if the newfound resistance of 1.1370 is convincingly breached. The long upper shadow attached to the previous two daily candles signals rejection or selling near 1.1370. As a result, that is the level to beat for the bulls. A close above 1.1370 would signal a continuation of the rally from the Feb. 15 low of 1.1234. Meanwhile, a close below the previous day's low of 1.1320 would validate candles with long upper shadows and shift risk in favor of a drop to recent lows below 1.1250. The probability of a bearish close below 1.1320 would rise if the German IFO surveys miss estimates and the fourth quarter GDP prints negative, forcing markets to price in a renewed stimulus from the ECB. The focus would shift to Draghi speech post-German data. The central bank head will likely sound dovish, strengthening bearish pressures around the common currency. EUR/USD, however, may find acceptance above 1.1370 if German data better estimates, alleviating the fears of a deeper slowdown to some extent.  EUR/USD Technical Levels 

According to Patrick Artus, analyst at Natixis, US core inflation is likely to remain stable, given the weak growth in unit labour costs and the fall

According to Patrick Artus, analyst at Natixis, US core inflation is likely to remain stable, given the weak growth in unit labour costs and the fall in oil prices (energy prices have a small effect on core inflation).Key Quotes“Accordingly, we can imagine a scenario in the United States where growth slows without inflation rising, as growth is hampered by hiring difficulties, the slowdown in residential real estate and in car purchases and the rise in corporate borrowing costs.” “This scenario would lead the Federal Reserve to ease its monetary policy: slower reduction in the size of its balance sheet, no rate hikes and possibly even rate cuts.”

Following the conclusion of his semi-annual lunch meeting with the Japanese PM Abe, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda came out on the wires, not

Following the conclusion of his semi-annual lunch meeting with the Japanese PM Abe, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kuroda came out on the wires, noting that they discussed the recent developments in the global economy.Additional Comments:There are some risks to the economic outlook, including trade protectionism. No change to main scenario that global economy to continue to grow. Meeting with Abe is a regular event, nothing special about today's timing. 

In view of analysts at TD Securities, the tone of the latest ECB minutes was tilted towards a dovish side, acknowledging that near-term growth is like

In view of analysts at TD Securities, the tone of the latest ECB minutes was tilted towards a dovish side, acknowledging that near-term growth is likely to be weaker than expected but more data is still needed to assess more medium term impacts.Key Quotes“This is consistent with the view that the soft patch in data is likely temporary, but amid higher uncertainty it may take longer to gain clarity.” “The main development in the minutes was on the discussion over TLTROs, notably that the analysis around these operation should be swift but any decisions around their use should not be taken hastily. This reads to us that the decision to pull the trigger is unlikely in the near term, and we continue to expect that they are unlikely to announce new TLTROs in March.”

The White House made an announcement late-Thursday, citing that the US President Donald Trump will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the Wh

The White House made an announcement late-Thursday, citing that the US President Donald Trump will meet with the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at the White House on Friday, Reuters reports.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades near 110.80 against the USD during early Asian trading on Friday. The USD/JPY pair has been struggling in a small range

USD/JPY struggles around 110.80 during initial Friday.Recent data from the US and Japan, coupled with developments surrounding a trade-deal between the world’s two largest economies, contribute to near-term pair moves.The 110.55-85 range is likely an immediate barrier for the pair.The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades near 110.80 against the USD during early Asian trading on Friday. The USD/JPY pair has been struggling in a small range since last few days as mixed news from the US-China trade, economic calendar and monetary policymakers troubled traders. Out of them, Thursday’s data dip from the US and dovish comments from Fed member contributed to the pair’s decline while positive signals for the US-Sino trade accord and soft Japanese inflation numbers helped the rise today. On Thursday, there were many economic draw-downs from the US. Among them, negative reading of the Philly Fed manufacturing index to -4.1 from prior 17.00, followed by the 53.7 print of Markit flash manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) versus 54.9 earlier, grabbed major market attention. It should also be noted that a slump into a contraction region by the Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI to 49.2 against 50.5 previous also hurt global investor sentiment. In case of Fed policymakers, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said that normalization is coming to an end and the December hike may have gone too far. The news renewed concerns that the Fed is far from another rate-hike and dragged the USD downwards. Following little weakness, the USD/JPY benefited from the early-day positive sentiment at the trade front on Friday. China’s readiness to import more of the US agricultural products and absence of any negative headlines pleased buyers whereas the US President Donald Trump’s afternoon meeting with the Chinese Vice Premier Liu He strengthened the mood. At the economic front, Japan’s January month headline CPI rose 0.2% y/y against 0.3% prior while National CPI ex-fresh food y/y matched 0.8% market consensus versus 0.7% earlier. While mixed data and lack of uniform reports from the trade negotiations between the world’s two largest economies continue signaling uneven moves, pessimism surrounding the global economic growth could continue favoring bulls.USD/JPY Technical AnalysisA downward sloping trend-line connecting Wednesday and Thursday highs could cap the pair’s immediate upside at 110.85, a break of which can register 111.00 and 111.15 as quotes. Meanwhile, 110.55 seem nearby support for the pair followed by 110.25 and 110.00.

EUR/GBP created a classic doji candle yesterday, signaling indecision in the market place. A close below 0.8666 today would signal a continuation of t

EUR/GBP created a classic doji candle yesterday, signaling indecision in the market place. A close below 0.8666 today would signal a continuation of the sell-off from the Feb. 14 high of 0.8840. A close above 0.8704 (previous day's high) would confirm the bull doji reversal. Looking at the hourly chart,  a daily close above 0.8704 looks likely.Hourly chartAs seen above, the pair has crossed the trendline sloping downwards from Feb. 14 highs and relative strength index (RSI) is biased bullish above.Trend: Bullish above 0.8704  

The NZD/USD pair fell 50 pips to a session low of 0.6757 a few minutes before press time, possibly due to RBNZ's rate cut hint. RBNZ's Deputy Governo

Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said that an increase in bank capital requirement could lead to an interest rate cut.NZD/USD has dropped 50 pips in response to RBNZ's rate cut hint. The yield differentials, however, have barely moved.The NZD/USD pair fell 50 pips to a session low of 0.6757 a few minutes before press time, possibly due to RBNZ's rate cut hint. RBNZ's Deputy Governor Geoff Bascand was out on the wires 15 minutes ago stating that the central bank is planning to hike capital requirements for the bank and the resulting tightening of financial conditions could be countered with the help of an interest rate cut. As a result, NZD/USD fell from 0.6807 to 0.6757 and is now trading at 0.6777 - down 0.32 percent on the day. So far, however, Bascand's comments have not had any impact on the yield differentials. The spread between the 10-year New Zealand and US government bond yield is currently seen at -0.44 basis points vs the previous day's low of 0.46 basis points. The resilient yield spread could help the NZD recover losses, although the odds of rate cuts in the major Oceania nation are rising. Hence, the spread is likely to drop in the NZD-negative manner.  NZD/USD Technical Levels 

Gold is currently trading at $1,325, having tested the 200-hour moving average (Ma) support of $1,320 in the overnight trade. Hourly chart As seen

Gold is currently trading at $1,325, having tested the 200-hour moving average (Ma) support of $1,320 in the overnight trade.Hourly chartAs seen above, the 14-hour relative strength index has pierced the descending trendline. So, the metal may revisit $1,330, although further gains look unlikely, as early signs of bearish reversal have emerged on a longer duration chart.Daily chartGold fell 1.1 percent yesterday - the biggest single-day drop since Nov. 9 - confirming a bearish divergence of the 14-day RSI. The short-term bearish reversal, however, would fail if the metal closes today above the ascending 5-day MA, currently at $1,330.Trend: bearish  

RBNZ: Rise in bank capital could lead to eventual rate cut, Kiwi drops 35-pips

RBNZ: Rise in bank capital could lead to eventual rate cut, Kiwi drops 35-pips

Australian Prime Minister (PM) Morrison is on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking about the Australian-China relationship following Thursday’s report

Australian Prime Minister (PM) Morrison is on the wires now, via Reuters, speaking about the Australian-China relationship following Thursday’s reports of the Chinese ban on the Australian coal imports.Main Headlines:Should not leap to conclusions on report of China coal ban. Sees nothing to suggest the move on coal was out of the normal. Denies souring of relationship with China.

CNBC is out with the latest headlines, citing that the trade talks between the US and China are said to be positive. Earlier today, the WSJ reported

CNBC is out with the latest headlines, citing that the trade talks between the US and China are said to be positive. Earlier today, the WSJ reported that the US wants China to accept "tough new strictures", as the talks get underway.

WTI refrains from extending its previous declines beneath $56.50 on early Friday. The energy benchmark dropped Thursday after the US reported record p

WTI trades around $56.50 on early Friday.While production and inventory details from the US dragged energy prices downward, positive news from the US-China trade front limits the declines.$56.25 acts as immediate support while $57.00 can cap nearby upside.WTI refrains from extending its previous declines beneath $56.50 on early Friday. The energy benchmark dropped Thursday after the US reported record production. The early-day positive report from the US-China trade front is likely limiting the energy downside. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the US crude oil production reached 12 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time last week. The government source also released weekly inventory levels wherein it followed the earlier industry report by rising 3.7 million barrels to 454.5 million barrels. Following the news, the energy prices declined for the first time in more than a week’s time. At the start of Friday, energy traders concentrated more on positive news from the US-China trade front than the supply-glut. During the first day of Chinese Vice Premier’s Washington visit, the dragon nation agreed to import more of the US agricultural products. Representatives of both the economies are also preparing for Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that could help come to a deal soon. Also, the US President Donald Trump is likely to meet the Vice Premier Liu He during Friday afternoon to give more emphasis on the trade deal. Looking forward, energy traders are likely to concentrate more on the trade developments considering the affair between the world’s two largest economies. On the background, supply cuts by the OPEC+ and the US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela may also add strength to the upside momentum, if any.WTI Technical AnalysisThe 100-day simple moving average (SMA) figure of $56.20 seems immediate support for WTI traders, a break of which can recall $55.65 and $55.10 on the chart. Meanwhile, $57.00 and $57.60 seem nearby resistances ahead of highlighting $58.00 for buyers.

NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6806, having clocked a high of 0.6817 earlier today. The recovery from the previous day's low of 0.6797 looks to be

Kiwi's recovery from lows below 0.68 seen yesterday is struggling to gather traction amid losses in the Asian equities.The pair may take a beating in Europe if German GDP prints below estimates, bolstering recession fears and leading to deeper losses in equities.NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6806, having clocked a high of 0.6817 earlier today. The recovery from the previous day's low of 0.6797 looks to be running out of steam, possibly due to risk aversion in the Asian equities. At press time, Japan's Nikkei is reporting a 0.43 percent drop and the Shanghai Composite is down 0.27 percent. Stocks in Hong Kong and South Korea are also flashing red. Shares in Australia and New Zealand, however, are trading in the green, likely due to the rising odds of interest rate cuts in both nations. Both RBNZ and RBA have recently shifted interest rate guidance to neutral by putting rate cuts back on the table. Therefore, the path of least resistance for the NZD and the AUD is to the downside. NZD/USD could fall back under the previous day's low of 0.6797 if the equities remain risk-averse. The losses could be much deeper if Germany's fourth-quarter GDP, scheduled for release at 07:0 GMT, prints below estimates, bolstering fears of a recession in the Eurozone's largest economy.Technical Levels 

According to the latest Reuters, the UK house prices are likely to see a modest correction should the UK exit the European Union’s membership next mon

According to the latest Reuters, the UK house prices are likely to see a modest correction should the UK exit the European Union’s membership next month without a Brexit deal, with London’s overvalued housing markets to be affected to a greater degree.Key Findings:“Negotiators are still scrambling to reach agreement, and if they fail then home prices in the capital, which has long been a magnet for foreign investors, will fall 3 percent in the six months after the March 29 split. Nationally, prices will drop 1 percent, the Feb. 13-20 poll found. However, a dip in the currency - a recent Reuters poll said sterling would fall 5-10 percent if there was no agreement - would make property cheaper for foreign investors, likely offsetting some of the uncertainty. If an agreement is reached, and most economists think it will be, house prices will rise 1.5 percent nationally and 0.5 in London in the six months after.”

While speaking at an event in White House, the US President Trump delivered upbeat remarks on the US economic outlook. Trump noted that “the US econo

While speaking at an event in White House, the US President Trump delivered upbeat remarks on the US economic outlook. Trump noted that “the US economy is stronger than it's ever been before.”

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) carries a story on Friday that is focused on the US-China trade talks, citing that the Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He is se

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) carries a story on Friday that is focused on the US-China trade talks, citing that the Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He is seen as crucial to ending the trade fight between China and the US.Key Quotes:“Trump administration is counting on the Chinese leader's special envoy, Liu He, to get Beijing to accept tough new strictures that are increasingly controversial in Beijing.  Liu-and his boss, President Xi Jinping-face powerful constituencies domestically that could hamper efforts to meet U.S. demands.  Deep gaps remain between U.S. and Chinese negotiators over some fundamental issues underlying the current bilateral trade tensions, according to people tracking the talks.  Chinese negotiators offered to stop providing government subsidies that distort prices and put Western rivals at a disadvantage, they haven't so far produced a list of subsidies they would be willing to eliminate, the people said. Instead, the Chinese side so far has focused its offer on greater purchases of U.S. agricultural and energy products such as soybeans, crude oil and liquefied natural gas, they said.”

The USD/CNH pair created a long-legged doji candle yesterday, signaling seller exhaustion/indecision in the market place. That, coupled with the bulli

The USD/CNH pair created a long-legged doji candle yesterday, signaling seller exhaustion/indecision in the market place. That, coupled with the bullish divergence on the hourly and 4-hour chart RSIs indicates a temporary low is likely in place at 6.6874. That said, a close above the downward sloping 10-day MA, currently at 6.7579, is needed to abort the bearish view.Daily chartHourly chartTrend: corrective bounce  

USD/CHF 4-Hour chart USD/CHF Overview:     Today Last Price: 1.0014     Today Daily change: 0.0003 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.03%     Today

USD/CHF trades near 1.0010 during early Friday.The pair’s failure to surpass a weeklong descending resistance-line favors its drop to 0.9990-85 horizontal-support.Should sellers refrain to respect the 0.9985 support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its early 2019 upside, at 0.9950, can offer intermediate halt during the slump targeting 0.9905 level comprising 50% Fibonacci.If at all prices decline past-0.9905, 0.9845 and 0.9800 should become bears’ favorites.On the contrary, the pair’s ability to cross 1.0020 resistance-line could trigger its pullback towards 1.0040 and 1.0075.Given the bulls dominate after 1.0075, 1.0100 is a crucial resistance to watch as it holds the gate for the pair’s rise to 61.8% Fibonacci expansion (FE) level of mid-January to February moves, at 1.0120, followed by 1.0150 and 1.0180 levels.USD/CHF 4-Hour chartUSD/CHF Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.0014
    Today Daily change: 0.0003 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.03%
    Today Daily Open: 1.0011
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.0001
    Daily SMA50: 0.9934
    Daily SMA100: 0.9955
    Daily SMA200: 0.991
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.0024
    Previous Daily Low: 0.9994
    Previous Weekly High: 1.01
    Previous Weekly Low: 0.9988
    Previous Monthly High: 0.9996
    Previous Monthly Low: 0.9716
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.0013
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.0005
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 0.9996
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 0.998
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 0.9966
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.0026
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.004
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.0056  

China House Price Index up to 10% in January from previous 9.7%

Australia’s jobs growth surged past all expectations in January, alleviating fears of a deeper economic slowdown to some extent. Reserve Bank of Aust

Australia’s jobs growth surged past all expectations in January, alleviating fears of a deeper economic slowdown to some extent. Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) governor Lowe, however, is of the opinion that the labor market could be lagging the strong economic growth witnessed in the previous quarters. Dr. Lowe, while testifying before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney, also said that the probability of interest rates going up or down is broadly balanced.Key quotesPossible labor market is reflecting earlier strong GDP. Lowe takes comfort from the forward-indicators on jobs. US ability to stimulate in downturn more constrained.  

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate 6.7151 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7220.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate 6.7151 vs the previous day's fix of 6.7220.

Gold clings to $1325 during the initial trading hours of Asia on Friday. The yellow metal dropped nearly $20 on Thursday as the US and China make prog

Gold prices remain around $1325 on early Friday.The bullion struggles to justify weaker global economics and likely trade peace between the US and China.$1322 seem near-term important support with $1336.50 likely immediate resistance.Gold clings to $1325 during the initial trading hours of Asia on Friday. The yellow metal dropped nearly $20 on Thursday as the US and China make progress on discussing a trade deal. However, sluggish manufacturing numbers from the US and the EU limited additional declines of the safe-haven. China’s Vice Premier Liu He reached Washington for two-day trade negotiations with the US diplomats on Thursday. The dragon nation offered additional imports of the US agricultural products for a good start to the discussion and followed a Bloomberg report that the US President Donald Trump plans to meet Mr. He during Friday afternoon. With this, investors remained upbeat that the world’s two largest economies may soon come to peace on trade terms. While optimism at trade front dragged the yellow metal downwards, economic calendar flashed alternative signals. The US durable goods orders grew lesser than forecast 1.5% to 1.2% in December while Markit flash manufacturing PMI posted 53.7 number against 54.9 prior. Further, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined to -4.1 versus 17.0 previous. In case of Eurozone details, Markit Flash manufacturing PMI slumped into contraction region with 49.2 reading compared to 50.5 prior. Looking forward, developments surrounding a trade deal between the US and China are likely to act as a major market catalyst while comments from ECB & Fed policymakers could also offer intermediate trade opportunities.Gold Technical AnalysisSustained dip beneath a year old trend-line support, previous resistance, at $1322 now, becomes necessary for the yellow metal to aim for $1315.50 and $1307 downside levels. If the pair takes a U-turn from resistance-turned-support, $1336.50 and $1348 may regain buyers’ attention.

AUD/USD continues to trade in the green in Asia despite RBA's Lowe reiterating that the probability of rates going up or down is broadly balanced. Th

AUD/USD is reporting marginal gains above 0.71 at press time, despite RBA's Lowe reiterating that the rate outlook is more evenly balanced.On Thursday, the pair created a bearish outside day candle, making today's close pivotal.AUD/USD continues to trade in the green in Asia despite RBA's Lowe reiterating that the probability of rates going up or down is broadly balanced. The central bank head, while testifying before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney, said that the central scenario remains a reasonable one as the strong labor market is supporting spending, still, rates are unlikely to go up this year. Dr. Lowe added that if the jobless rate - currently at five percent - declines, there may be a case for a higher interest rate. The bank, however, may cut rates if the national economy softens, and unemployment rises. Essentially, the governor merely reiterated the neutral shift communicated to markets on Feb. 6, leaving the AUD pairs unaffected. As of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7104, having clocked a high and low 0.7115 and 0.7086 earlier today. Looking ahead, the path of least resistance is to the downside, courtesy of growing calls for an RBA rate cut this year. On Thursday, Westpac shifted grounds with a new prediction that the RBA will cut rates by 25 basis points in August and November.Technical AnalysisThe pair carved out a big bearish outside day yesterday, engulfing the price action seen in the previous five trading days. A close below 0.7070 (yesterday's low) would validate that bearish outside day and open the doors for a deeper drop to 0.70.  

USD/JPY is shaping up into a heavy looking formation on the charts, weighed upon by a neutral tone from the Fed and a disappointing run of US data fro

USD/JPY was ranging between 110.55 and 110.85 overnight, in a consolidation below a prior trend line support. USD/JPY is currently trading at 110.63 and within a narrow early Asian Friday range of between 110.61/78. USD/JPY is shaping up into a heavy looking formation on the charts, weighed upon by a neutral tone from the Fed and a disappointing run of US data from overnight trade. US data disappoints, underpinning the Fed on hold for longer sentimentUS durable-goods orders rising 1.2% in December, below the 1.4% expected The Philly Fed manufacturing index fell to a seasonally adjusted reading of -4.1 from 17 in January. New claims for jobless benefits dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 216,000 during the week ending Feb 16th missing expectations.  The Conference Board’s leading-economic-indicators index declined 0.1% in January to 111.3, following no change in December. Existing home sales fell 1.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million homes - (the third straight month of declines) Equally, uber dove St. Louis Fed president Bullard said normalization is coming to an end and the December hike may have gone too far. However, US yields were on the rise though which leant some support to the dollar and likely so as markets were expecting a slightly more dovish outcome in the FOMC yesterday. The US 10yr treasury yield rose from 2.64% in Sydney trade to 2.69%, while the 2yr yield rose from 2.50% to 2.53%. Key statements form FOCM minutes, (Source LiveSquawk):Participants noted maintaining current target range for fed funds rate ‘for a time’ posed few risks at this point. Staff gave options for ending balance sheet runoff in h2 this year. Almost all officials wanted to halt b/sheet runoff in 2019. Many officials unsure which rate moves could be needed in 2019. Policymakers agree it is ‘important’ to be flexible in balance sheet normalization. Policymakers agree it would be appropriate to adjust if necessary. Several participants saw further hikes appropriate in 2019 if the economy evolved as expected. Patient posture allows time for ‘clearer picture’. - ‘few officials’ not concern over uncertainty not captured in dot plot; - seen strong household data recently; - officials note concerns over slowing growth, China; - concerns over trade, shutdown, fiscal policy; - seen some downside risks increase; - officials note volatility, tighter financial conditions.USD/JPY levelsValeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet explained, from a technical point of view, the short term picture continues offering a neutral-to-positive stance:  "In the 4 hours chart, the pair keeps developing above its moving averages, which offer modest upward slopes, as technical indicators hold within positive levels, the Momentum bouncing from its mid-line and the RSI directionless around 56. The pair could extend its decline once below 110.45, although it would need to lose 109.80 to turn bearish, while bulls could take over the pair on a break above 111.12, the yearly high."  

GBP/JPY daily chart GBP/JPY trades near 144.30 during early Asian sessions on Friday. The pair remains under 200-day simple moving average (SMA) a

GBP/JPY daily chartGBP/JPY trades near 144.30 during early Asian sessions on Friday.The pair remains under 200-day simple moving average (SMA) after failing to clear the same twice during Wednesday and Thursday.While 143.55 can offer immediate rest, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its September 2018 to January 2019 decline, at 143.00, could become near-term important support for the pair.Should prices slide beneath 143.00 on a daily closing basis, 142.50 and an upward sloping support-line connecting recent lows, at 141.85, may grab the spotlight.On the upside clearance of 144.70 SMA figure could trigger the pair’s recovery towards 146.00 horizontal-resistance whereas 147.00 and 147.30 may challenge buyers then after.GBP/JPY 4-Hour chartIn addition to falling short of crossing 200-day SMA, the pair recent slipped below a week old ascending support-line, which in-turn signal brighter chances of its further declines to 143.55 and then to 143.00.The pair needs to surpass 145.00 in order to visit 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of its recent moves, at 145.60.GBP/JPY hourly chartOn the H1 chart, the 143.20 may offer intermediate halt past-143.55 towards 143.00 whereas 144.60 could act as nearby resistance ahead of highlighting 145.00 upside barrier.

While the probability of interest rates going up or down is broadly balanced, a hike next year may be appropriate, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor

While the probability of interest rates going up or down is broadly balanced, a hike next year may be appropriate, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe said on Friday while testifying before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney. The central bank head shifted to a neutral policy outlook on Feb. 6 by putting rate cuts back on the table.Key quotesWould be concerned if inflation stays below 2-3% band. Unlikely rates would go up this year. Don't have a crystal ball on rates.

Japan's Finance Minister Aso is out on the wires stating that President Trump has not expressed concerns about yen when discussing trade issues with J

Japan's Finance Minister Aso is out on the wires stating that President Trump has not expressed concerns about yen when discussing trade issues with Japan. Key quotes Know of US-China talks but can't comment on currency  Any currency talks with the US is finance ministry remit, but have never directly talked about currencies. 

AUD/NZD was damaged overnight as the Aussie took a showing following the Reuters headlines that had reported China banning Australian coal imports to

AUD/NZD is trading at 1.0428, down from the 1.0488 highs and up from the 1.0396 lows. Reuters reported that China had banned Australian coal imports to northern China ports.AUD/NZD was damaged overnight as the Aussie took a showing following the Reuters headlines that had reported China banning Australian coal imports to northern China ports. However, analysts at Westpac explained that if the report is correct, this applies to only 10% of China’s coal imports from Australia. "Early Friday, Australia treasurer Frydenberg claimed that there was no ban". Nevertheless, AUD/NZD fell to 1.0397 lows but has started to recover, bearing in mind yesterday's impressive jobs data. However, the dollar and US yields were firmer following the markets take on the FOMC minutes, figuring that there are still possibilities of a rate hike in 2019.  "Robust jobs data should encourage the RBA but housing market remains a threat and China trade is a new concern. Offshore factors should limit AUD downside though," the analysts at Westpac explained.Eyes on the Kiwi and NZ Q4 GDPWith respect to AUD/NZD, Kiwi remains at risk around NZ Q4 GDP later in March as the next key data point for the cross which could break the restraints that traders have been confined to between 1.0367 and 1.0488.AUD/NZD levelsAUD/NZD's horizontal support line est. since June 2017, was tested again on 13th Feb 2019 marking a fresh swing low at 1.0367. On the flipside, bulls are looking towards an upside target that is located at the 38.2% fibo target in the 1.0560s. Technicals are neutral for the time being, but a breakthrough R2 at 1.0490 should but bulls back in charge.

AUD/JPY remains little changed around 78.50 during initial Asian market trading on Friday. The pair struggled to extend pullback from 78.30 as the Res

AUD/JPY trades near 78.50 during the early Asian session on Friday.Mixed comments from the RBA Governor fail to provide any direction.Catalyst affecting safe-haven demand could offer moves to the pair.AUD/JPY remains little changed around 78.50 during initial Asian market trading on Friday. The pair struggled to extend pullback from 78.30 as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor held the latest policy bias while remaining optimistic on house price falls and China’s coal import ban. With the testimony likely running for three-hours, many updates are still to flow together with a question and answer session that could give near-term direction to the pair. Also, catalysts for safe-havens could also play their role to determine immediate pair moves. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe appeared for testimony before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney, at 22:30 GMT. Lowe initially praised economic development but lowered down present year GDP forecast to 3%. He then communicated his disappointment for Inflation while giving equal probabilities to the central bank’s next policy moves. Additionally, Lowe said recent coal ban from China doesn’t have any dramatic impact on the domestic economy and the house buyers should discuss a good loan with the bank.  A major part of the Lowe’s recent comments tried sticking to the earlier view that no clear direction is preferable for the next move on interest rates. As a result, investors fret about lack of fresh details but are still waiting for some during these three hours. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened on Thursday as uncertainty over the US-China trade talks and Brexit continued pushing investors to safe-havens. China agreed to import more agriculture products from the US while leading politicians at the UK started doubting that voting on fresh Brexit proposal can happen during next week.AUD/JPY Technical AnalysisBreak of two-week long ascending support-line signals brighter chances of the pair’s decline to 78.10, 77.50 and 77.00 consecutive rest-points. Alternatively, an upside clearance of 78.70 could help the quote aim for 79.20 and 79.90 numbers to the north.

Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) in line with forecasts (0.8%) in January

Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) meets forecasts (0.4%) in January

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) meets forecasts (0.2%) in January

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe appeared for a testimony before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe appeared for a testimony before the House of Representatives' Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney, during initial Asian session on Friday. The testimony is to range for three hours but initial reaction of the Australian Dollar (AUD) was weak as Lowe refrained from giving up on his earlier bias towards offering neutral policy signals. Important points revealed during the initial statements: (Source: RBA) Central scenario 3 pct growth this year. Does not see a strong case for a near-term change in the cash rate. Monetary policy already providing considerable support to the Australian economy. Much will depend on what happens in our labour market. Shift in rate view largely reflects the change in the outlook for consumption. Important to point out that we are still expecting further progress towards our goals. If we do make this progress, it remains the case that higher interest rates will be appropriate at some point. Labour market outcomes have been better than we earlier expected. We continue to expect unemployment to move lower over the next couple of years to around 4.75 percent. In terms of inflation, the recent outcomes have been a bit lower than we had been expecting. By the end of 2020, inflation is forecast to reach 2¼ percent. The economy is benefiting from increased spending on infrastructure and a pick-up in private investment. The strong growth in jobs is also supporting spending, as is the sustained low level of interest rates. Globally, the central scenario also remains a reasonable one. Lists trade tensions, Brexit, rise of populism, strains in some western European economies as political risks. Monitoring Chinese economy closely. The board has recently been paying "particularly close attention" to the strength of household spending and to developments in the housing market. Determining the underlying strength of consumption has been complicated. Available data suggest that the underlying trend in consumption is softer than it earlier looked to be and this has affected the outlook for the economy.

USD/CAD 4-Hour chart USD/CAD Overview:     Today Last Price: 1.323     Today Daily change: 0.0053 pips     Today Daily change %: 0.40%     Today

USD/CAD trades around 1.3230 at the beginning of the Asian session on Friday.The pair recently recovered from late-January highs but an immediate downward sloping trend-line joining a week’s high, at 1.3245, may challenge the up-moves.Given the pair’s successful break of 1.3245, it becomes capable of aiming the 1.3295-1.3300 resistance-region comprising another descending resistance-line connecting highs marked since January 24 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s late-December to early February downturn.Should there be additional upside past-1.3300, 1.3330 and 50% Fibonacci retracement near 1.3365 can please the buyers.Meanwhile, 1.3165 can offer immediate support to the pair during its pullback, a break of which can recall 1.3120 and 1.3080 rest-points on the chart.In a case where prices keep drowning past-1.3080, the current month low around 1.3065 may offer an intermediate halt, which if ignored could trigger the pair’s plunge to 1.2970, including 61.8% Fibonacci expansion of its moves since the end of December 2018.USD/CAD 4-Hour chartAdditional important levels:Overview:
    Today Last Price: 1.323
    Today Daily change: 53 pips
    Today Daily change %: 0.40%
    Today Daily Open: 1.3177
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 1.3223
    Daily SMA50: 1.3352
    Daily SMA100: 1.3256
    Daily SMA200: 1.3154
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 1.322
    Previous Daily Low: 1.315
    Previous Weekly High: 1.3341
    Previous Weekly Low: 1.3196
    Previous Monthly High: 1.3664
    Previous Monthly Low: 1.3118
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.3177
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.3194
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.3144
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.3112
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.3074
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.3215
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.3253
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.3285  

U.S. stocks were lower on Thursday, despite further evidence that the US and China are making progress in finding a solution to their trade dispute. T

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 103.81 points, or 0.4%, to 25,850.63.S&P 500 SPX lost 9.82 points, or 0.4%, to 2,774.88.Nasdaq Composite Index snapped an eight-day winning streak and shed 29.36 points, or 0.4%, to 7,459.71. U.S. stocks were lower on Thursday, despite further evidence that the US and China are making progress in finding a solution to their trade dispute. There were headlines from Reuters citing sources that reported on officials of the Chinese had been putting together the specific details of a possible trade deal - Agreements in principle are being drawn up in six key areas: forced technology transfers and cyber theft, intellectual-property rights, services, currency, agriculture and nontariff barriers to trade. However, the trade headlines are having less of an impact and, instead, investors are focussing back on the US economy and the Fed. The disappointments in today's US data encouraged investors to take some of the cream of the top of the recovery rally following a less dovish set of FOMC minutes markets had been hoping for. US data disappoints, underpinning the Fed on hold for longer sentimentUS durable-goods orders rising 1.2% in December, below the 1.4% expected The Philly Fed manufacturing index fell to a seasonally adjusted reading of -4.1 from 17 in January. New claims for jobless benefits dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 216,000 during the week ending Feb 16th missing expectations.  The Conference Board’s leading-economic-indicators index declined 0.1% in January to 111.3, following no change in December. Existing home sales fell 1.2% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million homes - (the third straight month of declines). DJIA levels The technical indicators in the DJIA are still positive on a weekly time frame, although are now mixed nearer term with a drop in daily RSI. A pullback will likely test the commitments of the bulls at the 76.4% Fibo at 25651 which could spark a flurry of profit-taking flurry back to the 50% mean reversion of the rally from the latest swing low to 25631. An additional bid and extension in the rally would likely look to 26277 as the 2nd Dec swing highs.  

S&P500 daily chart The S&P500 broke above the 200-day simple moving average as bulls are trying to regain control. S&P500 4-hour chart The S

S&P500 daily chartThe S&P500 broke above the 200-day simple moving average as bulls are trying to regain control.S&P500 4-hour chartThe S&P500 is trading above its main SMAs suggesting bullish momentum in the medium-term. The bulls are likely looking at the 2,815.00 resistance. S&P500 30-minute chartThe S&P500 is trading between the 100 and 200 SMAs suggesting a sideways market in the short-term.Bulls need to overcome 2,780.00 resistance to reach 2,800.00 and 2,815.00 levels.To the downside, support is at 2,765.00 and 2,730.00 level.Additional key levels:SP 500 Overview:
    Today Last Price: 2774.25
    Today Daily change: -13.00 points
    Today Daily change %: -0.47%
    Today Daily Open: 2787.25
Trends:
    Daily SMA20: 2723.89
    Daily SMA50: 2623.9
    Daily SMA100: 2669.96
    Daily SMA200: 2751.9
Levels:
    Previous Daily High: 2790.75
    Previous Daily Low: 2773.75
    Previous Weekly High: 2778.5
    Previous Weekly Low: 2702.5
    Previous Monthly High: 2714
    Previous Monthly Low: 2441
    Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 2784.26
    Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 2780.24
    Daily Pivot Point S1: 2777.08
    Daily Pivot Point S2: 2766.92
    Daily Pivot Point S3: 2760.08
    Daily Pivot Point R1: 2794.08
    Daily Pivot Point R2: 2800.92
    Daily Pivot Point R3: 2811.08  
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